A decade after the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that polarised the nation and caused disorder, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two prominent journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially contentious and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our islands remains very unstable."
Book Publication Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have studied the political, economic and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a book, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the issue with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns all parties, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely polarised community where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the victorious side are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say such a time is approaching, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the likelihood, making it uncertain if and when there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unity has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which may surpass that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any government figures or campaigners want to engage with even the essentials. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, no writer advocates unification or the current situation. They authors two articles that aim for objectivity in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the case against, marshalling economic and societal data, past examples and constitutional models.
Debates cover flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of unionist unrest. The objective is to enlighten and provoke conversation.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there is still lacking a debate," commented the writer. "Debate implies an recognition of the notion that there may exist reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters report they favour unification but refuse greater financial contributions or introducing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to work out what the plan from Irish nationalism is aside from just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride thinks a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it could happen abruptly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a feckless official who says: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid arguments, he said. "One side will win on this issue and somebody will eventually be defeated but both parties has has something to acquire from the alternative positions."
Request for Wider Dialogue
Westminster must engage with the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."
