Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the crisis sparked by the announcement of a new 28-point plan for ending the war appeared – momentarily – to have been contained. A senior US official spoke of "significant advancement" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its countermove: another massive barrage of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Peace Talks and Military Action
The sequence of opposing developments captured the bleak nature of the recent timeframe. By day, negotiation efforts are conducted: hopeful statements are released from different nations. Immense energy is allocated on managing certain initiatives. By night, the Kremlin forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, war remains the main instrument for achieving "resolution".
Nighttime Reality
As Russia's attack developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's defenselessness was laid bare. Ukraine is equipped to monitor rocket firings from enemy soil, a capability afforded by timely intelligence. From observation points, military aircraft that had been deployed to counter approaching guided weapons flew past – modern combat jets provided to Ukraine by Western partners.
Moments later, Kyiv's missile defense engaged: multiple launches fired to intercept a hostile projectile. This was a modern interception technology at work, probably provided by partner states. Every launch jolts you unexpectedly, rattling buildings. The moment of terror quickly becomes sober acceptance: maybe the hostile projectile won't strike its target this time, protecting urban areas from catastrophe and additional electricity failures.
Persistent Threats
Following this, a large-caliber weapon opened up on a drone somewhere nearby, part of a rapid response unit – most likely allied-provided weaponry. Unfortunately, the projectiles didn't strike the hostile drone – it pressed on overhead toward its target.
Periodically, this continued until dawn. Kyiv greeted the daybreak reports: seven people killed, devastation and heating outages in multiple buildings as a result of the night's assault. As typically, everyone still went about their day – experiencing conflict. But those entire period encapsulated Ukraine's critical military reliance on international aid – a need that regional partners are demonstrably unable to replace in the near term.
Failed Diplomacy
The comprehensive proposal from Washington provoked deep reactions, controversy and profound anxiety – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after earlier high-level meetings and multilateral gatherings.
Every new proposal from US leadership adheres to the consistent cycle: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, effectively counters. They contain the crisis but never actually win the battle. This trend will, no doubt, persist.
Tactical Assessments
It is easy to blame particular leaders of persistently promoting Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. Washington functions according to a premise well known to international relations experts: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have failed to defend militarily. The US administration presumes that it is impossible to force Russia to relinquish the land that it currently occupies in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The challenge is that while accepting these circumstances, US leadership does nothing to prevent Kremlin actions, through statements or actions, from assuming that the status quo will not shift further in its favour in the coming year.
Divergent Views
Therefore, the Kremlin is confident that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its supporters are coming close to fatigue. Their motivation to accept conditions that does not give them the maximum possible gain is almost completely absent. There may be many attempts to achieve ceasefire, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leadership remains supremely confident in the outcome.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still hold out, gradually sacrificing civilians and areas but avoiding a total frontline collapse until conditions improve in its benefit.
Current Realities
Factually, there are no real preconditions for a ceasefire. Now, personal considerations are becoming relevant: personal goals to negotiate peace and achieve global acclaim, and the government's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the country's interests against any initiative Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their focus does not switch to domestic problems. And although their objective will now be significantly challenging after latest incidents, it remains very improbable that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These conflicting dynamics are driving the talks.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a only one week to kill the proposed articles of the current initiative. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by US administration, resistance by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with pacifying measures of diplomats, and finally, recent disclosures, all served their function.
While new proposals based on old ideas are imminent, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter negotiation assaults from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and reflect specific hesitation to change the course of events, if they remain united and enhance their military capacity at a much faster pace. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the foreseeable future, primarily depend on ongoing international assistance.
