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New Yorkers will learn the identity of their next mayor this Tuesday, in a race that will determine who runs and protects the nation's most populous metropolis at a moment when the former president has vowed to send military troops to the urban center.

In this context, New York has witnessed a mayoral election that has pitted two distinctly opposing Democratic figures against each other. The election has become an acrimonious face-off, marked by alleged racism and Islamophobia, but it is the ideological divide between the two leading candidates that could have major implications for how the Democratic party performs in next year's congressional races.

The Progressive Challenger

On the left side is Zohran Mamdani, the 34-year-old democratic socialist whose meteoric rise and people-powered movement has brought global notice. Representing the old guard is the former governor, the former Democratic New York governor now running as an independent – and benefiting from the backing of wealthy contributors and big business.

With days to go, it is the progressive, the former longshot who defeated Cuomo in the party primary who is firmly installed as the frontrunner. The candidate, who has campaigned on a platform of affordability and pledged to freeze rent for about two million New Yorkers, has outpaced Cuomo by significant margins across all surveys taken in the fall, and it is very much the younger man's election to lose.

A Bitter Contest

However, Cuomo, who stepped down as governor in 2021 amid accusations of misconduct, has made it clear he will fight to the end, and not necessarily in an above-the-belt fashion. He has trashed his opponent's goals as unachievable, and in recent days laughed as a broadcaster made anti-Muslim comments about Mamdani, who is a Muslim. Two weeks ago, Cuomo was widely condemned as racist after sharing an artificial intelligence video that featured a series of racist stereotypes and showed his opponent releasing a convicts.

It's been a rather grubby conclusion to an race that could be critical to the direction that the party, floundering in its reaction to the former president's power moves, takes in the near future.

National Implications

Should the progressive wins convincingly, the establishment party leaders who have declined to support his campaign will be compelled to address a message that has resonated with voters' frustration at inequality, inflation and the establishment. It would be difficult for the Senate leader and the House leader not to embrace at least a portion of the candidate's progressive proposals about economic justice, given the newcomer has generated an excitement within the Democratic ranks arguably not seen since the Vermont senator campaigned for the White House eight years ago.

However, if the former governor, who had been expected to win easily in the Democratic primary, complete a surprising comeback victory, it could reinforce national Democrats' current model of considered, uninspiring resistance – a tactic that has angered grassroots members. A NYC defeat of Mamdani's optimistic platform could convince party leaders that the best plan is to remain in the political center – even as polls show the current iteration of the Democratic party is widely disliked across the country.

Campaign Energy

Residents of New York appear to favor the Mamdani vision. Surveys show that Mamdani supporters are far more enthusiastic about their choice than his opponent's supporters, something that has been apparent during the race. The candidate's engaging content on social media, his hopeful outlook for the city and his willingness to actually venture out and meet people in the metropolis has drawn an army of more than 50,000 supporters, many of them youth or first-time voters.

Personal Attacks

However, Cuomo, in his late sixties, isn't giving up. And with the risks stacked against him, the ex-leader has resorted to ugly messaging in the final days.

Following extensive throwing basically everything at Mamdani to see what might stick, Cuomo has narrowed his focus on targeting the candidate directly. He has labelled his rival, who was of Ugandan origin to South Asian heritage, an "radical", and appeared on Fox Business for an discussion with Maria Bartiromo, where the candidate claimed New York “will not survive” Mamdani as mayor. It reached a nadir last week, when Cuomo chuckled and said “that’s another problem” after a radio host said Mamdani would “cheer” another 9/11-style incident.

Political Landscape

This strategy mirrors much of what Trump, who has deployed the military reserves to the capital and warned to do the same to NYC, has said about Mamdani, and perhaps that is expected. A group of billionaire New Yorkers, including some who contributed to Trump in the last presidential race, have invested heavily into trying to elect the independent into office, as other influential figures have urged the Republican candidate to drop out from the contest.

Political Histories

As far as the his team, and his wealthy backers, are worried, it should never have come to this point. When Mamdani, one of 150 state legislators, started his campaign for mayor in October 2024, not many had known him, and in reality, barely anyone even noticed.

Cuomo, by comparison, eased his way into the contest in this year and became the instant favorite. He was the big beast who seemingly held all the advantages. The quintessential establishment figure, he had married a political dynasty member and served in Bill Clinton’s administration. He assumed office as the state's leader in 2011, 17 years after his parent, Mario Cuomo, stepped down from the identical role.

The progressive, who was voted in to the state legislature in 2020, does not have the comparable background. But his dedication to providing free buses and affordable child services – along with the freeze-the-rent pledge – offer a more positive vision of the future than his opponent's pessimistic predictions about “mayhem” and unfettered crime, and his vow to hire more police officers.

Campaign Controversies

Nevertheless, the candidate has faced difficulties in recent days, after video emerged suggesting him implying the New York police department and the IDF were intertwined.

“We have to make clear that when the boot of the NYPD is on your neck, it’s been influenced by the IDF,” the candidate said in the recording, filmed at a DSA convention in recent years. Mamdani, a longtime critic of the Israeli government who has said the nation is engaging in atrocities in Gaza, indicated he was questioning joint training exercises between the NYPD and Israeli forces.

Emotional Response

With the election nearing, Mamdani appears to have won empathy and backing, however, for his response to Cuomo’s increasing rhetoric.

Mamdani responded to the independent's terrorism comments in an heartfelt recording. In it, the candidate recalled how, when he first ran for state assembly, a family member suggested to him that he did not have to tell people about his Muslim faith. It was a realization, Mamdani said, that many Muslim New Yorkers had been told “again and again”: “That safety could only be found in the margins of our community. That it is in those hidden spaces alone where Muslims could embrace their full identities, and that if we were to step out from those shadows, then it is in those shadows that we must set aside our faith.”

Speaking to the behavior of Cuomo and Sliwa, who has claimed Mamd