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Ordinarily, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year trophy follows a straightforward script. It often functions as a kind of apology. Sorry we got wrong your squad in our pre-campaign projections.

On paper, it's a direct trajectory: the coach who orchestrated the biggest resurgence wins the award. In practice, it sparks an annual debate about expectations and whether we're genuinely rewarding excellent coaching or simply the biggest shock.

But this year's field is fundamentally unique. The list of nominees is remarkably talented. It has been the year of turnarounds. The NFL has been messy, with reigning conference winners declining and recent underperformers ascending in unison. Under an normal year, Sean Payton guiding the Denver Broncos to the top of the conference would make him the stone-cold favorite. But in this chaotic and fun year, he's up against several other elite candidates.

Below is how the projected ballot ought to be structured.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year voters are fascinated by QBs. History shows this. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. Should you solve a franchise QB, you're halfway home.

The Bears' head coach not only fixed his young quarterback; he's unleashed him. Given a proper environment, Williams has been afforded the chance to showcase his rare talent. From Week 9, the Chicago offense sit at fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a lucky run – it's consistent dominance. With his guidance, Williams has become increasingly confident, far less careless, and has willingly surrendered to the system instead of freelancing. It is an attack designed entirely in the coach's image: a bully-ball run game, a consistent dose of play-action passes and a creative passing attack that creates wide-open targets all over the field. Williams has taken advantage. And when openings haven't been available, he's been capable to spin magic from nothing.

The coach arrived to Chicago with a specific offensive vision. Almost every decision – rebuilding the offensive line, highlighting the pass-catchers, turning Williams into a rhythm thrower – has worked. This is rare for a rookie head coach. And it's rarer yet for a coach who entered the building with the immense expectations he did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the most sought-after name on the head coaching carousel. But when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are zero guarantees. Somehow, Johnson has met the hype – and even surpassed them. He's proven not just to be a scheme genius but the kind of culture builder that can inject fresh energy into an organization.

In a normal season, he would be the overwhelming choice. Yet this is not a normal year!

The area where Johnson's candidacy runs slightly into trouble is on the defensive side. The Bears presently rank in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are surviving on turnovers, and takeaways are famously fickle. Coaches can focus on creating turnovers, but no one can guarantee it. He is on the ballot because the offensive production is sustainable. He's ranked lower because luck is doing an outsized share of the defense's heavy lifting. If not for a couple bounces of the ball, the Bears would be several victories worse off. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the foundation is established for long-term winning. But Johnson comes up short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

Coen is in a comparable situation to Johnson. He's a fellow first-time leader who has engineered a dramatic resurgence. Over the crucial final weeks of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the best all-around football of his professional life. And he's also overseen the transformation of a defense that now ranks fifth in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more impressively, he has excelled at the off-field aspects, which was not a given after his early public introduction and some of his preseason moves.

Coen took over Jacksonville with an uncommonly inexperienced coaching staff. In contrast to Johnson, who surrounded themselves with the perfect staff blend of new ideas and veteran savvy, Coen hired newbies. From the leader himself to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jags are filled with first-timers. That type of approach is intriguing on paper, but often collapses in practice – with other teams are a warning – because everyone is learning a their job on the fly. But he has pulled everyone and all elements into sync.

After an initial hot start, there was a chance that the season would veer off the rails. A midseason collapse had the team wobbling again. That's usually when coaches overcorrect. Coen did not. Rather, he simplified the approach. Jacksonville stopped pursuing explosive plays and started hunting reliable ones. The coach recentered the attack around his playmakers and the running game, and asked Lawrence to use his legs more often.

The outcomes are evident. The Jaguars have won multiple games consecutively and will be the conference's number three playoff seed. He gets the tiniest knock in the standings because he inherited a talented team, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, 13-3

Each Coach of the Year argument has a defining moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback choice.

Moving on from a incumbent, bringing in a new quarterback and partnering him with an innovative play-caller could have ended the campaign in the early weeks. Rather, it defined it. Through the middle point of the year, the acquisition was an MVP front-runner. He has cooled off since that hot streak, slipping to a lower rank in efficiency per dropback over the second half of the season, placing him only a single spot ahead of other QBs.

Still